Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Castellon win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Castellon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.42%) and 2-0 (5.88%). The likeliest Almeria win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Castellon would win this match.