Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 46.84%. A win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest Real Zaragoza win was 0-1 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.