Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceuta win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Cultural Leonesa had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceuta win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Cultural Leonesa win was 1-2 (6.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.