Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 31.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Castellon win was 1-2 (7.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.