Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Motherwell win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Motherwell win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Motherwell would win this match.