Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Motherwell win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for St Johnstone had a probability of 29.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Motherwell win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest St Johnstone win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Motherwell would win this match.