Scottish Premiership

Scottish Premiership | Gameweek 38

May 18, 2025 at 3pm UK

Rugby Park

Kilmarnock
0 - 1
Hearts

Donnelly (40')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kingsley (89')
Forrester (19')
Dhanda (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Scottish Premiership clash between Kilmarnock and Hearts, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Kilmarnock

All competitions

Last Game: Motherwell 3-0 Kilmarnock
Wednesday, May 14 at 7.45pm in Scottish Premiership

Goals
for

Hearts

All competitions

Scottish Premiership

Last Game: Hearts 2-1 St Johnstone
Wednesday, May 14 at 7.45pm in Scottish Premiership

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Hearts had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Hearts win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.

Result
Kilmarnock	Draw	Hearts
38.74% ( -0.44)	26.39% ( 0.19)	34.87% ( 0.25)

Both teams to score 52.79% (

-0.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.05% (

-0.76)

51.95% (

0.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.31% (

-0.66)

73.69% (

0.66)

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.8% (

-0.59)

26.2% (

0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.7% (

-0.8)

61.3% (

0.8)

Hearts Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.54% (

-0.21)

28.46% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.77% (

-0.27)

64.23% (

0.27)

Score Analysis

Kilmarnock 38.74%

Hearts 34.87%

Draw 26.39%

Kilmarnock	Draw	Hearts
1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.75% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.31% Total : 38.74%	1-1 @ 12.55% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.39%	0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.47% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 34.87%