Scottish Premiership Gameweek 38
Kilmarnock
May 18, 2025 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Rugby Park
Hearts
  • Liam Donnelly 40' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Adam Forrester 19'
  • redcard Yan Dhanda 38'
  • goal Stephen Kingsley 89'

Kilmarnock vs Hearts - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Kilmarnock

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
May 14, 2025 7.45pm
Motherwell 3 - 0 Kilmarnock
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Bruce Anderson

Hearts

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
May 14, 2025 7.45pm
Hearts 2 - 1 St Johnstone
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Lawrence Shankland

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Hearts had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Hearts win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.

Result

Kilmarnock 38.74% ▼ (-0.45)
Draw 26.39% ▲ (+0.20)
Hearts 34.87% ▲ (+0.26)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.79% ▼ (-0.59)

Goals

Over 2.5 48.05% ▼ (-0.77)
Under 2.5 51.95% ▲ (+0.77)
Over 3.5 26.31% ▼ (-0.67)
Under 3.5 73.69% ▲ (+0.67)
Over 4.5 12.2% ▼ (-0.44)
Under 4.5 87.8% ▲ (+0.44)

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 0.5 73.8% ▼ (-0.60)
Under 0.5 26.2% ▲ (+0.60)
Over 1.5 38.7% ▼ (-0.80)
Under 1.5 61.3% ▲ (+0.81)

Hearts Goals

Over 0.5 71.54% ▼ (-0.22)
Under 0.5 28.46% ▲ (+0.22)
Over 1.5 35.77% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 1.5 64.23% ▲ (+0.27)

Score analysis

Kilmarnock 38.74%
Draw 26.39%
Hearts 34.87%
Kilmarnock
1-0 @ 9.99% ▲ (+0.14)
2-1 @ 8.41% ▼ (-0.09)
2-0 @ 6.69% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.75% ▼ (-0.11)
3-0 @ 2.99% ▼ (-0.07)
3-2 @ 2.36% ▼ (-0.08)
4-1 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.06)
4-0 @ 1% ▲ (+98.97)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 38.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.55% ▲ (+0.11)
0-0 @ 7.46% ▲ (+0.23)
2-2 @ 5.28% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 1.1%
Total : 26.39%
Hearts
0-1 @ 9.37% ▲ (+0.23)
1-2 @ 7.89% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.89% ▲ (+0.11)
1-3 @ 3.3% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.47% ▲ (+0.04)
2-3 @ 2.21% ▼ (-0.05)
1-4 @ 1.04% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 34.87%

Head to Head

Scottish Premiership Gameweek 24
Hearts
Jan 25, 2025 3.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT Tynecastle Park
Kilmarnock
  • Elton Kabangu 7' goal
  • Jorge Grant 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Jamie McCart 58' goal
  • Jorge Grant 61' goal
  • Malachi Boateng 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 42'
  • yellowcard Kyle Magennis 45'+3'
  • goal Bobby Wales 50'
  • yellowcard Marley Watkins 45'+5'
  • yellowcard Danny Armstrong 54'
  • goal Fraser Murray 67'
  • yellowcard David Watson 81'
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 17
Kilmarnock
Dec 15, 2024 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Rugby Park
Hearts
  • Robbie Deas 6' redcard
  • Bruce Anderson 18' goal
  • Fraser Murray 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard James Penrice 16'
  • yellowcard Kye Rowles 45'+7'
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 10
Hearts
Oct 30, 2024 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Tynecastle Park
Kilmarnock
  • Alan Forrest 44' goal
  • James Penrice 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kyle Vassell 52'
  • goal Matty Kennedy 58'
  • goal Kyle Vassell 63'
  • yellowcard Matty Kennedy 65'
  • yellowcard Marley Watkins 77'
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 34
Kilmarnock
Apr 27, 2024 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Rugby Park
Hearts
  • Lewis Mayo 36' yellowcard
  • Joe Wright 44' yellowcard
  • Liam Donnelly 61' yellowcard
  • Stuart Findlay 89' yellowcard
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 31
Hearts
Mar 30, 2024 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Tynecastle Park
Kilmarnock
  • Kenneth Vargas 10' goal
  • Frankie Kent 27' yellowcard
  • Alex Cochrane 65' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Danny Armstrong 28'
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 63'
  • goal Marley Watkins 67'
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 15
Kilmarnock
Dec 2, 2023 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 2
FT Rugby Park
Hearts
  • Will Dennis 40' yellowcard
  • Will Dennis 41' yellowcard
  • David Watson 68' yellowcard
  • goal Will Dennis 18' (OG)
  • goal Will Dennis 18' (OG)
  • yellowcard Calem Nieuwenhof 79'

Form Data

Motherwell 3 - 0 Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock 3 - 2 Dundee
St Johnstone 0 - 2 Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock 2 - 0 Ross County
Celtic 5 - 1 Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock 2 - 0 Motherwell
Hearts 2 - 1 St Johnstone
Hearts 3 - 0 Motherwell
Ross County 1 - 3 Hearts
Hearts 0 - 1 Dundee
Hearts 1 - 2 Aberdeen
Motherwell 0 - 0 Hearts