Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win with a probability of 54.68%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Stenhousemuir had a probability of 22.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.81%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Stenhousemuir win it was 1-2 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.