Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Airdrieonians win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 37.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Airdrieonians win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.33%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Airdrieonians would win this match.