Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 37.62%. A win for Queen of the South had a probability of 37.41% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ayr United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.2%) and 0-2 (5.87%). The likeliest Queen of the South win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Queen of the South | Draw | Ayr United |
| 37.41% | 24.97% | 37.62% |
| Both teams to score 57.89% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.51% | 45.49% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.17% | 67.82% |
| Queen of the South Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.03% | 23.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.79% | 58.21% |
| Ayr United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.14% | 23.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.95% | 58.05% |
| Score Analysis |
| Queen of the South | Draw | Ayr United |
| 2-1 @ 8.36% 1-0 @ 8.17% 2-0 @ 5.83% 3-1 @ 3.98% 3-2 @ 2.85% 3-0 @ 2.78% 4-1 @ 1.42% 4-2 @ 1.02% 4-0 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.01% Total : 37.41% | 1-1 @ 11.7% 2-2 @ 5.99% 0-0 @ 5.72% 3-3 @ 1.36% Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.96% | 1-2 @ 8.39% 0-1 @ 8.2% 0-2 @ 5.87% 1-3 @ 4.01% 2-3 @ 2.86% 0-3 @ 2.81% 1-4 @ 1.44% 2-4 @ 1.03% 0-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.03% Total : 37.62% |