Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 82.76%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Al Riyadh had a probability of 6.23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 3-1 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.97%), while for an Al Riyadh win it was 1-2 (1.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.