Saudi Pro League | Gameweek 11
Oct 27, 2023 at 7pm UK
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Al-Hilal
3 - 1
Al-Ahli

Milinkovic-Savic (1'), Mitrovic (37'), Ibanez (84' og.)
FT(HT: 2-0)
Saint-Maximin (58')
Ibanez (32'), Hindi (45+4'), Al-Asmari (88'), Kessie (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Saudi Pro League clash between Al-Hilal and Al-Ahli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Al-Hilal

All competitions
Saudi Pro League
Last Game: Al-Hilal 6-0 Mumbai City
Monday, October 23 at 7pm in AFC Champions League

Al-Ahli

All competitions
Last Game: Al-Ahli 3-1 Al Wahda
Saturday, October 21 at 7pm in Saudi Pro League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Hilal win with a probability of 60.96%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Al-Ahli had a probability of 17.73%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Hilal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.08%), while for an Al-Ahli win it was 0-1 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Hilal would win this match.

Result
Al-HilalDrawAl-Ahli
60.96% (0.097999999999999 0.1)21.31% (0.302 0.3)17.73% (-0.405 -0.41)
Both teams to score 53.15% (-1.833 -1.83)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.19% (-2.04 -2.04)43.81% (2.033 2.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.8% (-2.028 -2.03)66.2% (2.021 2.02)
Al-Hilal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.1% (-0.625 -0.63)13.89% (0.618 0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.68% (-1.242 -1.24)41.31% (1.235 1.24)
Al-Ahli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.72% (-1.674 -1.67)38.27% (1.667 1.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.97% (-1.643 -1.64)75.03% (1.636 1.64)
Score Analysis
    Al-Hilal 60.95%
    Al-Ahli 17.73%
    Draw 21.31%
Al-HilalDrawAl-Ahli
1-0 @ 10.49% (0.679 0.68)
2-0 @ 10.35% (0.444 0.44)
2-1 @ 9.95% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
3-0 @ 6.81% (0.146 0.15)
3-1 @ 6.55% (-0.157 -0.16)
4-0 @ 3.36% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 3.23% (-0.154 -0.15)
3-2 @ 3.14% (-0.225 -0.23)
4-2 @ 1.55% (-0.149 -0.15)
5-0 @ 1.33% (-0.033 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.28% (-0.092 -0.09)
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 60.95%
1-1 @ 10.08% (0.219 0.22)
0-0 @ 5.32% (0.459 0.46)
2-2 @ 4.78% (-0.226 -0.23)
3-3 @ 1.01% (-0.122 -0.12)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 21.31%
0-1 @ 5.11% (0.224 0.22)
1-2 @ 4.84% (-0.114 -0.11)
0-2 @ 2.45% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
1-3 @ 1.55% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.53% (-0.146 -0.15)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 17.73%

How you voted: Al-Hilal vs Al-Ahli

Al-Hilal
76.9%
Draw
11.5%
Al-Ahli
11.5%
26
Head to Head
Aug 13, 2019 6.30pm
Round of 16
Al-Hilal
0-1
Al-Ahli

Al Dawsari (89'), Babhir (90'), Gomis (93')
Asiri (42')
Al Fatil (37'), Souza (55'), Muwashar (68'), Al Owais (93')
Aug 6, 2019 5.40pm
Round of 16
Al-Ahli
2-4
Al-Hilal
Al Somah (6'), Djaniny (39')
Al Khabrani (2'), Aleksic (45'), Al Somah (61'), Souza (90')
Gomis (15', 48', 65'), Al-Hafith (81')
Albulayhi (34'), Al Dosari (36'), Otayf (90')