After suffering their worst defeat of the season in late July (5-1), Sao Paulo have a chance to repay the favour to Flamengo on Sunday when they host the defending Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A champions at Cierco Pompeu de Toledo Stadium.
On Wednesday, Tricolor Paulista salvaged a point with an injury-time strike to draw Fortaleza 1-1, while Urubu extended its unbeaten run to five straight in the league, with a convincing 3-0 win over Bahia.
Match preview
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Regardless of how this domestic campaign ends, it has not been a good season for the former six-time league champions, who have only finished outside of the top 10 in Serie A one time since 2006.
Even if they were to win their remaining seven games, it would not be enough to crack the 60-point plateau, a mark which they have achieved in each of their previous three domestic seasons.
The Hernan Crespo experiment was a failure, as the former Argentine striker was often outwitted tactically by opposing managers and this team were in real danger in the early part of the season of doing the unthinkable, being relegated into Serie B.
Under the management of their former legendary goalkeeper Rogerio Ceni, they have looked sharper defensively, but they are actually in a worse position than when Crespo left, currently in 14th, down one spot from Ceni's predecessor.
This team have done a much better job of limiting the damage, conceding no more than a single goal in their last 12 league fixtures, but finding the back of the net continues to be a tall order for this squad, scoring only 24 goals so far, the joint second-fewest in the league behind only Sport Recife.
When they find themselves behind, panic seems to set in, and they struggle to find their footing, having failed to win a single league fixture this year when conceding the opening goal.
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A third successive Serie A championship is still within reach for Flamengo, but overcoming an 11-point deficit with only eight games to go will take some doing.
They did what they needed to do against Bahia, scoring on 50% of their targeted efforts despite being reduced to 10 men for a second straight game.
Mengao have more quality and depth than just about any side in the Brazilian top flight, as 15 different players have scored for them in this domestic campaign and 16 have at least one assist.
Renato Gaucho has the luxury of an intelligent side who can adjust to various formations, usually alternating between a conventional 4-4-2 or a 4-2-3-1 depending on who they are playing.
Their usually compact backline has become a little unstable away from home in recent matches, conceding seven times in their previous three road games, two of which were against the second-lowest scoring side in the league, Chapecoense.
In 2020, Flamengo needed only 71 points to claim the title, but Atletico Mineiro have nearly matched that total already, accumulating 68 points and with seven games remaining, and the reigning champions may need a lot of help from other teams to retain their Serie A crown.
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Team News
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Substitute Martin Benitez had the equaliser for Soberano on Wednesday, his second goal of the campaign, putting him even with teammates Gabriel Sara, Igor Gomes and Reinaldo.
Tiago Volpi has been one of the few bright spots in what has been a dismal campaign by Sao Paulo standards, with the 30-year-old keeper collecting 11 clean sheets so far this season, just one back of Walter, Mailson and Fernando Miguel for second in the Brasileiro Serie A.
Bruno Alves got the start on defence earlier this week over Robert Arboleda, who was their right-back in their previous match, while Rodrigo Nestor played as the lone holding midfielder on Wednesday, replacing Liziero, Igor Vinicius took the place of Luis Manuel Orejuela and Jonathan Calleri was inserted in the attack instead of their leading goalscorer Emiliano Rigoni.
Diego will not be available for Flamengo in this one after he was dismissed with just over an hour played in their match with Bahia, becoming the second Mengao player to be red-carded in their last two games as Everton Ribeiro was expelled late in their draw with Chape.
Attacking midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta has not seen any action since sustaining a muscle injury in early October, and he could very well be out for the remainder of the season.
Bruno Henrique scored a hat-trick in their last league fixture with Sao Paulo, while Michael has come alive in recent matches, scoring four goals in his previous three games, as he leads the team now with 11, two more than the aforementioned Henrique and Gabriel Barbosa.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Leo, Miranda, Costa, B. Alves; Nestor, Sara, Reinaldo, Vinicius; Calleri, Rigoni
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
D. Alves; Rodinei, G. Henrique, Luiz, Rene; Da Motta, Maia; B. Henrique, Pereira, Vitinho; Barbosa
We say: Sao Paulo 0-2 Flamengo
Sao Paulo may be a little better defensively with Ceni at the helm, but they do not pose much of a threat in attack to bother a traditionally stingy backline in Flamengo.
You can throw out the fact that Tricolor Paulista are unbeaten versus Mengao in their previous nine home fixtures because those were different Sao Paulo teams with plenty of quality in attack, something that they have lacked in 2021, but something that Flamengo have in spades.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 45.07%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 28.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 1-0 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
