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Samoa national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage
Nov 18, 2024 at 6.30am UK
Mount Smart Stadium
New Zealand national football team

Samoa
0 - 8
New Zealand

FT(HT: 0-3)
McCowatt (24'), Wood (28', 34', 60'), Stamenic (62'), De Vries (75'), Just (87'), Waine (90+2' pen.)
Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Group Stage clash between Samoa and New Zealand.

Form, Standings, Stats

Samoa

Last Game: Samoa 0-3 Tahiti
Friday, November 15 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

New Zealand

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: New Zealand 8-1 Vanuatu
Friday, November 15 at 6.30am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 83.71%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Samoa had a probability of 5.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 0-3 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.38%) and 0-4 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.1%), while for a Samoa win it was 2-1 (1.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-8 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.

Result
SamoaDrawNew Zealand
5.42% (0.683 0.68)10.87% (1.245 1.25)83.71% (-1.93 -1.93)
Both teams to score 46.63% (-1.009 -1.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.17% (-3.555 -3.55)28.83% (3.553 3.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.23% (-4.493 -4.49)49.77% (4.49 4.49)
Samoa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.05% (-0.576 -0.58)50.95% (0.576 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.69% (-0.392 -0.39)85.3% (0.38799999999999 0.39)
New Zealand Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
95.06% (-0.928 -0.93)4.94% (0.926 0.93)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
80.21% (-2.883 -2.88)19.79% (2.881 2.88)
Score Analysis
    Samoa 5.42%
    New Zealand 83.7%
    Draw 10.87%
SamoaDrawNew Zealand
2-1 @ 1.72% (0.194 0.19)
1-0 @ 1.7% (0.311 0.31)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 5.42%
1-1 @ 5.1% (0.647 0.65)
2-2 @ 2.59% (0.132 0.13)
0-0 @ 2.52% (0.495 0.5)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 10.87%
0-3 @ 11.41% (0.21 0.21)
0-2 @ 11.38% (0.94 0.94)
0-4 @ 8.59% (-0.423 -0.42)
1-3 @ 7.7% (0.017 0.02)
1-2 @ 7.68% (0.511 0.51)
0-1 @ 7.57% (1.07 1.07)
1-4 @ 5.79% (-0.387 -0.39)
0-5 @ 5.17% (-0.629 -0.63)
1-5 @ 3.48% (-0.49 -0.49)
2-3 @ 2.6% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-6 @ 2.59% (-0.516 -0.52)
2-4 @ 1.95% (-0.166 -0.17)
1-6 @ 1.75% (-0.383 -0.38)
2-5 @ 1.18% (-0.187 -0.19)
0-7 @ 1.11% (-0.314 -0.31)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 83.7%