Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 62.58%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 16.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.92%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.