Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 65.41%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 14.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.58%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.62%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.