Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 43.88%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 30.15% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.