Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 43.88%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 30.15% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.

Result
Krylia Sovetov	Draw	Lokomotiv Moscow
30.15% ( -0.49)	25.97% ( -0.16)	43.88% ( 0.65)

Both teams to score 52.61% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.51% (

0.44)

51.49% (

-0.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.71% (

0.39)

73.29% (

-0.38)

Krylia Sovetov Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.64% (

-0.12)

31.36% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.28% (

-0.14)

67.72% (

0.14)

Lokomotiv Moscow Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.65% (

0.51)

23.35% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.68% (

0.73)

57.32% (

-0.73)

Score Analysis

Krylia Sovetov 30.15%

Lokomotiv Moscow 43.88%

Draw 25.97%

Krylia Sovetov	Draw	Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.89% Total : 30.15%	1-1 @ 12.35% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.97%	0-1 @ 10.65% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.98% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 7.75% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 4.36% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 3.76% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.03) Other @ 2% Total : 43.88%