Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 58.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Khimki had a probability of 19.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Khimki win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.