Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 52.1%. A win for Akron Tolyatti had a probability of 24.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (8.9%). The likeliest Akron Tolyatti win was 1-0 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.