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Roma logo
Serie A | Gameweek 31
Jul 8, 2020 at 8.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Parma logo
Roma
2 - 1
Parma
Mkhitaryan (43'), Veretout (57')
Cristante (9'), Peres (49'), Diawara (71'), Mkhitaryan (78'), Ibanez (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Kucka (9' pen.)
Kurtic (85')

Preview: Roma vs. Parma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A clash between Roma and Parma, including team news and predicted lineups.

Roma and Parma will both be looking to end a run of three consecutive Serie A defeats when they go head-to-head at the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday evening.

Roma currently lie fifth in the table on 48 points - level with sixth-placed Napoli, while Parma occupy 12th spot with 39 points to show from 30 matches.


Match preview

Paulo Fonseca pictured as Roma boss in August 2019© Reuters

Roma's dismal run of form since the restart continued on Sunday as fellow European hopefuls Napoli condemned Paulo Fonseca's side to their third defeat in succession with a 2-1 victory in Naples.

I Giallorossi have now only taken three points from a possible 12 since the Italian top flight was given the green light to resume, and their already-faint hopes of breaking into the top four are looking all the more slim at this late stage.

Roma are still ahead of Napoli in the table by means of a superior goal difference, but Fonseca's men are 15 points off the pace for a Champions League berth with eight games of the season left to play.

Fonseca's side have a mixed run of fixtures against relegation candidates and European hopefuls to contend with as the season draws to a close, and I Giallorossi will certainly be looking over their shoulder as AC Milan sit just two points adrift of the top six after a strong run of form.

Roma, however, are at risk of dropping out of the European places entirely if results do not improve soon, but they are now facing a Parma side who have endured an equally woeful run of form in the past couple of weeks.

Parma boss Roberto D'Aversa pictured in September 2018© Reuters

Fiorentina ended their own winless run at Parma's expense at the weekend - with a 2-1 victory for La Viola ensuring that Parma have little to play for at this late stage of the campaign.

As is the case with Roma, Parma have only picked up one win since the restart and have lost their last three on the bounce in the Italian top flight, and the European dream for Roberto D'Aversa looks set to remain just a dream as Parma lie nine points adrift of the top six.

That is not to say that it is impossible for Parma to mount a late charge for the European places, but 13 losses is simply too many for a side with aspirations of a top-six finish, with Parma only picking up four league wins since the turn of the year.

I Crociati's recent away form has not been all that bad, though, with last week's 3-2 loss to Hellas Verona the first time that Parma had suffered defeat on the road in five matches.

Parma enjoyed a 2-0 victory thanks to goals from Mattia Sprocati and Andreas Cornelius when they faced off with Roma in the reverse fixture.

Roma Serie A form: WWWLLL
Roma form (all competitions): DWWLLL

Parma Serie A form: LDWLLL


Team News

Roma forward Nicolo Zaniolo pictured in November 2019© Reuters

Chris Smalling was forced off early in the defeat to Napoli with a thigh problem and is set to undergo further tests this week, so it remains to be seen whether the Englishman will be available for Wednesday.

Striker Diego Perotti returns from a suspension but is not expected to start up top ahead of Edin Dzeko, while Nicolo Zaniolo made his long-awaited return to action off the bench against Napoli.

Fonseca opted for a five-at-the-back system against Gennaro Gattuso's men but is expected to revert back to his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 against Parma - with Bryan Cristante likely to replace Roger Ibanez.

With regards to Parma, D'Aversa's only concern is the thigh problem keeping Roberto Inglese on the treatment table, but other than that the Napoli manager has a fully fit squad to select from.

Top scorer Cornelius could return to the starting lineup after being brought on as a sub against Fiorentina, but there are not expected to be too many changes from the team at the weekend.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Zappacosta, Mancini, Fazio, Kolarov; Cristante, Veretout; Mkhitaryan, Pellegrini, Kluivert; Dzeko

Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Darmian, Iacoponi, Alves, Gagliolo; Kukca, Scozzarella, Kurtic; Kulusevski, Cornelius, Gervinho


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Roma 2-1 Parma

The two clubs will be determined to end their respective winless runs on Wednesday, and both will no doubt believe that they are equally capable of coming out trumps in this game. That being said, we expect the superior quality of Roma to pull through and give the home side a narrow victory as they endeavour to keep their European hopes alive.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 63.43%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Parma had a probability of 16.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Parma win it was 1-2 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.


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8Fiorentina2812794132943
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