One of the standout fixtures on the La Liga calendar will take place at Wanda Metropolitano on Sunday afternoon as Atletico Madrid welcome Real Madrid for the Madrid derby.
Atletico are currently top of the table, five points clear of third-placed Real Madrid, while Diego Simeone's side still have a game in hand over both Los Blancos and second-placed Barcelona.
Match preview
© Reuters
Atletico have been excellent in La Liga this season, winning 18, drawing four and losing just two of their 24 matches to collect 58 points, which has left them in a strong position at the top of the table.
As mentioned, Simeone's side have a five-point advantage over both second-placed Barca and third-placed Real Madrid and also have a game in hand over the two sides, which could prove decisive.
Atletico actually had a wobble in the league between February 8 and February 20 as they won just one of their four matches, suffering a shock 2-0 home defeat to Levante in their last match at Wanda Metropolitano.
The capital giants returned to winning ways in impressive fashion last weekend, though, as an own goal from Alfonso Pedraza and second-half Joao Felix effort saw them record a 2-0 victory away to Villarreal.
© Reuters
The Red and Whites are bidding to win their 11th La Liga title and first since 2013-14, and there is no question that they have been the best side that Spain's top flight has to offer this season.
Simeone's side are the second-highest goalscorers behind Barca, netting 47 times in their 24 matches, with 16 of those coming from Luis Suarez, who has proved to be an inspired signing for the club.
Defensively, meanwhile, Atletico have again been excellent, conceding just 16 times, which is unsurprisingly the best record in Spain's top flight ahead of Sevilla, who have shipped just 18 goals.
The 10-time Spanish champions are in charge of the title race, but it would be fair to say that they have work to do in the Champions League, having suffered a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in the first leg of their last-16 tie.
A win for the home side in this game might well end Real Madrid's hopes of retaining the title, but a draw or a defeat would certainly open the door for Los Blancos, while Barca, who travel to Osasuna on Saturday night, will also believe that they are capable of catching Atletico in the coming weeks.
© Reuters
Real Madrid, as mentioned, currently occupy third position in the table, having picked up 53 points from their 25 matches this season courtesy of 16 wins and five draws.
Zinedine Zidane's side have struggled during periods of the season and will enter this match off the back of a 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad on March 1; Portu's 55th-minute goal looked to be securing all three points for the visitors, only for Vinicius Junior to level the scores in the 89th minute.
Los Blancos are in good form, though, winning five of their last six in all competitions, including four of their last five in Spain's top flight to pull themselves into the title picture at this stage.
The Spanish champions are also in a strong position to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League, having recorded a 1-0 win over Atalanta BC in the first leg of their last-16 tie on February 24.
© Reuters
Injuries have been a big problem for Real Madrid in recent weeks, but they have managed to negotiate through a difficult period with an impressive set of results, and a relatively kind run of matches will see them face Elche, Celta Vigo and Eibar in their next three league encounters after this one.
The club are struggling due to the financial impact of the coronavirus outbreak, and it is difficult to imagine them having the funds to sign a Erling Braut Haaland or a Kylian Mbappe this summer.
Eden Hazard is again on the sidelines through injury, and there is no getting away from the fact that the Belgium international has struggled since his big-money move from Chelsea; Karim Benzema has contributed 12 league goals this season, but the Frenchman is battling to be available for this contest.
Real Madrid's away form this season will certainly give them reasons to be optimistic, having picked up 28 points from their 13 matches, suffering just one defeat. However, Atletico have the best home record with 29 points from 12 games and will be looking to inflict a huge blow on their bitter rivals.
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Atletico are again expected to be without the services of central defender Jose Gimenez due to an adductor injury, but the home side should be boosted by the return of Yannick Carrasco, who has recently been on the sidelines with a foot problem.
Kieran Trippier is also available, having served a 10-week betting suspension, and the England international is being tipped to feature in the starting XI for the Madrid derby.
Felix could be given the nod over Angel Correa to start alongside Suarez in the final third of the field, while Saul Niguez is expected to edge out Thomas Lemar to feature in the middle of the park.
As for Real Madrid, Hazard, Mariano Diaz, Dani Carvajal and Sergio Ramos are all unavailable through injury, while Benzema is a doubt as he battles an ankle problem.
Los Blancos have recently been boosted by the returns of Federico Valverde, Marcelo and Rodrygo Goes, though, and all three players are available for selection in the Madrid derby.
Zidane could decide to revert to a midfield four for this game, with Valverde joining Toni Kroos, Casemiro and Luka Modric behind a front two, which is expected to include Benzema, with the Frenchman taking part in Friday's training session for the reigning champions.
Vinicius could be rewarded for his goal against Real Sociedad with a spot alongside Benzema in attack, meaning that Marco Asensio is likely to drop down to the bench.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Felipe, Hermoso; Trippier, Llorente, Koke, Saul, Carrasco; Felix, Suarez
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Vazquez, Nacho, Varane, Mendy; Modric, Casemiro, Kroos, Valverde; Benzema, Vinicius
Head To Head
There have been a total of 226 matches between these two teams in all competitions, with Real Madrid leading the head-to-head record 112 wins to Atletico's 56.
Los Blancos have been victorious in 89 of their 167 matches in La Liga, losing 39 times, while they have also won the last two league meetings between the two sides, including a 2-0 success in the reverse game at the Alfredo Di Stefano Stadium in December.
Atletico have not actually beaten Real Madrid in the league since a 1-0 success at the Bernabeu in February 2016, although there have been plenty of draws in recent years, with the pair sharing the points in five of their last eight encounters in Spain's top flight.
We say: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid
This is a very, very difficult match to call for obvious reasons, and there is simply no downplaying the importance of the contest to both sides. Atletico have managed to recover a number of key players for this game, which should hand them an advantage, but Real Madrid's injury situation is improving and a returning Benzema could help them claim a point at Wanda Metropolitano.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 50.49%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 23.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.66%) and 1-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for an Atletico Madrid win it was 1-0 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
