Aiming to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg at the Parc des Princes, Real Madrid play host to Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie at the Santiago Bernabeu on Wednesday night.
A Kylian Mbappe strike in the dying embers was all that could separate the two sides in Paris as both capital giants prepare for another clash of the titans here.
Match preview
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Facing his biggest admirers - who tried and failed to prise him away from the Parc des Princes with a nine-figure sum in the summer transfer window - Kylian Mbappe may not be warmly embraced by all in Madrid if his strike proves to be the one which ended Los Blancos' Champions League dreams.
Ahead of an anticipated free transfer to Carlo Ancelotti's side for the 2022-23 season, Mbappe weaved through a sea of white shirts and slotted home calmly past Thibaut Courtois - who had kept out Lionel Messi's penalty earlier on the night - to give PSG the upper hand in the behemoth of a tie.
Real Madrid's European pedigree is not up for debate, though, and Ancelotti's side have at least responded to that setback in ideal fashion by securing three La Liga wins on the bounce, including a 4-1 success over Real Sociedad on Saturday after going a goal down inside the opening 10 minutes.
However, recent history is not on the hosts' side this week, with Real Madrid being sent packing in the last-16 twice in the last three editions of the Champions League and only progressing from one of their last 10 knockout battles when losing the first leg.
Ancelotti's side are certainly welcoming PSG to the Bernabeu at a good time, with Los Blancos embarking on a 13-game unbeaten run on home soil since defeat to Sheriff Tiraspol back in September, and Les Parisiens' did not prepare for the second leg in ideal fashion.
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As Nice manager Christophe Galtier bluntly put it during his post-match press conference, there is a PSG with Kylian Mbappe and a PSG without Kylian Mbappe, and the Aiglons coach's words did indeed ring true during their heavyweight clash at the weekend.
With the suspended Frenchman helplessly watching on from the sidelines, PSG fell to a second defeat from three Ligue 1 matches as Andy Delort came off the bench to net the only goal of the game in the 88th minute, with Mauricio Pochettino cutting a frustrated figure on the touchline.
It would still take a collapse of monumental proportions for PSG to lose their grip on the Ligue 1 title, but a few lowly performances on the road have done Pochettino no favours ahead of the second leg, with neither the Bernabeu pitch nor the Bernabeu faithful particularly welcoming.
PSG suffered three consecutive last-16 exits between 2017 and 2019 and won the first leg by at least two goals on two of those occasions, so Les Parisiens will be fully aware that the tie is not dead and buried just yet, especially with Pochettino failing to win any of his last four away games in the Champions League.
Furthermore, a wholly inconsistent PSG have only prevailed in four of their last 10 away matches in all competitions - two of which came against lower-league opposition in the Coupe de France - and Los Blancos are unbeaten in their last three homes games versus the French giants ahead of what promises to be a truly fascinating spectacle.
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Team News
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Real Madrid will be forced to work around suspensions for two of their key players this week, as Casemiro and Ferland Mendy picked up their third yellow cards of the tournament in the first leg and are banned for this one.
Mendy's suspension is hardly ideal with Marcelo restricted to indoor training on Monday - although he could still make himself available for the second leg - while Toni Kroos is in the squad after a hamstring injury.
On a brighter note, Federico Valverde has recovered from flu in time to take Casemiro's place in the middle, while Eduardo Camavinga ought to come up against familiar opposition if Kroos's injury does not allow him to feature from the off.
As for PSG, Pochettino would throw Mbappe straight back into the first XI as the Real Madrid-linked man returns from his domestic ban, but the attacker took a stomp to the foot from Idrissa Gueye in training and will need to be double-checked.
Ex-Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos is set to miss out on a Bernabeu reunion due to his latest calf injury, but Achraf Hakimi and Leandro Paredes have made the squad.
Ander Herrera remains out, though, with the Spaniard developing an eye infection while he also attempts to battle his way back from a muscular problem, and there is also no space in the squad for Layvin Kurzawa.
Gianluigi Donnarumma can expect to return in goal for Keylor Navas this week, while Georginio Wijnaldum may drop out of the midfield after another uninspiring display at the Allianz Riviera.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Marcelo; Camavinga, Valverde, Modric; Asensio, Benzema, Vinicius Jr
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Mendes; Pereira, Gueye, Verratti; Messi, Mbappe, Neymar
We say: Real Madrid 3-1 Paris Saint-Germain
With Mbappe fresh and raring to go, PSG can certainly carve their way through an unfamiliar Real Madrid midfield, and attack may be the best form of defence for the visitors as they attempt to build on their slender advantage.
However, Ancelotti's men are enduring a golden spell at their headquarters while PSG are flattering to deceive on their travels, so we are backing the Benzema and Vinicius-inspired Blancos to turn the tie on its head and crush Les Parisiens' Champions League dreams for yet another year.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Real Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Real Madrid.
