Saturday's Bundesliga meeting between RB Leipzig and Freiburg at the Red Bull Arena could well have a huge impact on who finishes inside the top four come May.
Both sides head into the clash on the back of DFB-Pokal success in midweek, but their attentions now return to league action at the weekend, with both fighting it out for a spot in next season's Champions League.
Match preview
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Leipzig's transformation under Domenico Tedesco has continued with two further victories over the past week, although it has been an excellent start to 2022 overall anyway.
With participation in both the DFB-Pokal and the Europa League still ongoing, Die Roten Bullen prepare for their 12th fixture of the year already when they host Freiburg on Saturday.
The fixture congestion has done little to halt Leipzig's progress as of yet though, with last week's progression into the round of 16 in Europe being followed by their advancement into the DFB-Pokal semi-finals after the comfortable 4-0 victory over 2.Bundesliga side Hannover on Wednesday evening.
Christopher Nkunku was instrumental to their result once again, with the Frenchman netting his 24th and 25th goals of the season against lower-league opposition, which followed his match-winning goal off the bench last weekend when Leipzig visited VfL Bochum.
Tedesco's side were far from their best at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion against a well-drilled opponent, but Nkunku's moment of quality was enough to seal a sixth win from seven Bundesliga games since the turn of the year.
As a result, Saturday's hosts occupy fourth spot ahead of matchday 25, but with their tally of 40 points being equal to that of their opponents and Hoffenheim as well, any potential slip up could see them lose momentum and drop out of their top-four position, meaning this clash could well turn out to be a pivotal moment in the race for the Champions League places in Germany.
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Meanwhile, Freiburg maintained the pressure on Leipzig last weekend by cruising to a 3-0 win over a struggling Hertha Berlin side at the Europa-Park Stadion.
Vincenzo Grifo opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside 12 minutes, and although their visitors remained well in the encounter, Freiburg's stubborn defence kept them at bay, before Kevin Schade and Lucas Holer netted a quickfire double late on to seal the three points.
As a result of the clean sheet, Christian Streich's side remain in possession of the joint-best defence in the Bundesliga, only matched by league leaders Bayern Munich.
That stubborn defence is likely to be put under severe pressure from the in-form Nkunku and co at the Red Bull Arena, as Freiburg continue their unlikely push for a remarkable Champions League spot.
In addition to their fantastic efforts in the league up to this point, Streich's men made it three straight wins when they travelled to Bochum in the DFB-Pokal on Wednesday, with goals from Nils Petersen and Roland Sallai seeing them join Leipzig in the semi-finals of the cup.
Whatever happens between now and May, it has been an incredible campaign for this Freiburg side and their long-serving manager Streich, but they will be eager to edge closer to their dreams becoming reality when they travel to a rival for the European places at the weekend.
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Team News
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Tedesco's rotation due to fixture congestion saw Nkunku have to settle for a place on the bench at Bochum last weekend, but the forward is almost certain to return to the starting lineup on Saturday.
He is likely to be joined by Andre Silva and the in-form Dani Olmo in attack, with the latter having a new lease of life since the turn of the year after recovering from injury.
Josko Gvardiol is the only injury concern for the hosts, after the young defender pulled up with a back problem during the win over Hannover in midweek.
Marcel Halstenberg made his first appearance of the season off the bench in that game, but it is likely to be Lukas Klostermann that will deputise for the young Croatian.
As for the visitors, Holer and Schade would have been pushing for starts after their impacts off the bench last weekend, but with them looking to replace Petersen and Sallai in the starting lineup, Streich will have been forced into a rethink following the latter two's goals in midweek.
Streich must make a change in the centre of midfield however, with Nicolas Hofler serving a one-match suspension after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in the win over Hertha.
Janik Haberer is the likely replacement, but fellow midfielder Yannik Keitel remains sidelined with a broken toe.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Orban, Simakan; Henrichs, Laimer, Haidara, Angelino; Olmo; Silva, Nkunku
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, N Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Eggestein, Haberer; Sallai, Jeong, Grifo; Petersen
We say: RB Leipzig 2-1 Freiburg
This could well be a tight affair on Saturday, with Freiburg sure to remain well organised in their quest to frustrate their hosts for long periods of the game.
There is likely to be little between the two sides, but we are predicting for Leipzig to narrowly edge out the visitors thanks to home advantage, as well as the form of Nkunku in particular.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 67.32%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 13.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.03%), while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.
