Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Umm Salal win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Al Mu'aidar had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Umm Salal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.47%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Al Mu'aidar win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.