Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Umm Salal win with a probability of 47.67%. A win for Al Shamal had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Umm Salal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.31%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Al Shamal win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.