Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Shamal win with a probability of 46.49%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al Shamal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.38%) and 2-0 (5.63%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 1-2 (7.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.