Paris Saint-Germain can blow the race to make the Champions League knockout stages wide open when they welcome RB Leipzig to the Parc des Princes for Tuesday's Group H clash.
The hosts have only managed to come out on top once in their three European games so far, whereas Leipzig have triumphed twice to sit three points above their gameweek four opponents.
Match preview
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PSG's encounter with Monaco on Friday was already billed as the game to watch in the latest round of Ligue 1 matches, and the game certainly lived up to expectation, but it was not the result that Thomas Tuchel craved at the Stade Louis-II.
Fresh from international duty and injury woes, Kylian Mbappe needed no second invitation to strike twice in the first half to put PSG in control, but Monaco came back with three goals in the second 45 to end the champions' eight-game winning streak in Ligue 1, with the introduction of Cesc Fabregas proving pivotal for Monaco.
Tuchel did not hold back post-match - describing the second half as "catastrophic" - although the Parisiens have been one of the worst-hit teams in France by injuries and players returning late from international exploits.
However, PSG supporters will certainly not be accepting any excuses from their side later this week as the Ligue 1 champions hope to keep the pressure on the top two in Champions League Group H, with last year's finalists at a real risk of falling at the first hurdle following one win and two losses so far.
Tuchel has witnessed his side pick up their solitary victory in Europe over Istanbul Basaksehir, but should PSG fall to Leipzig again and Manchester United prevail against Basaksehir, the Parisiens may as well kiss their hopes of making the knockout stages goodbye.
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Meanwhile, Leipzig are also looking to rectify domestic mistakes when they take to the pitch in the Champions League, with Julian Nagelsmann's side only managing to take a point from their clash with Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday evening.
Leipzig fell behind on the stroke of half time as Aymen Barkok struck first for Frankfurt, but bringing Yussuf Poulsen into the action paid dividends for Nagelsmann as the Danish striker equalised 11 minutes after being introduced in the second half.
It was certainly not an ideal preparation for a trip to the perennial French champions, but Nagelsmann will take confidence from the fact that his side are three points clear of their midweek opponents and can all but guarantee a top-two finish with a victory in gameweek four.
Should Leipzig overcome PSG, they cannot be caught by Tuchel's side owing to their superior head-to-head record, and it would take nothing short of a miracle for Basaksehir to pull off a magnificent turnaround and break into the knockout places.
Nagelsmann's side have already gotten the better of PSG in Germany, with Christopher Nkunku and Emil Forsberg the heroes of the hour after Angel Di Maria drew first blood for the French side, who finished that tie with nine men as Idrissa Gueye and Presnel Kimpembe both saw red.
Paris Saint-Germain Champions League form: LWL
Paris Saint-Germain form (all competitions): WWWLWL
RB Leipzig Champions League form: WLW
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): WLLWWD
Team News
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Kimpembe is banned for this tie after being sent off in the last match with Leipzig, as is Gueye, but the former Everton midfielder is injured anyway.
Tuchel has already confirmed one name on the PSG teamsheet for Tuesday's showdown - Neymar will make his return to the Parisiens attack after being given a 30-minute run-out against Monaco.
Marquinhos and Leandro Paredes did not make the starting lineup on Friday owing to their recent returns from South America, but the duo are expected to come back into the fold for this imperative clash with Leipzig.
Ander Herrera was forced to sit out on Friday after suffering a knock in training - which only exacerbated Tuchel's growing injury concerns - and it remains to be seen whether or not the midfielder will be fit enough to play in midweek.
Tuchel could also opt to make a double change at full-back, with Alessandro Florenzi and Mitchel Bakker pushing for inclusion over Colin Dagba and Layvin Kurzawa.
As for Leipzig, Nagelsmann was boosted by Dayot Upamecano recovering in time to start against Frankfurt, and the highly-coveted Frenchman is set for another inclusion from the off here.
However, fellow defenders Nordi Mukiele, Lukas Klostermann and Marcel Halstenberg are all nursing injuries, but Willi Orban is fit and raring to go.
Forsberg will certainly look to start this one after his penalty gave Leipzig the win over PSG last time out, while Poulsen should also come back in to Nagelsmann's first XI.
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Navas; Florenzi, Diallo, Marquinhos, Bakker; Pereira, Paredes, Rafinha; Di Maria, Mbappe, Neymar
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Orban, Upamecano, Konate; Henrichs, Haidara, Nkunku, Angelino; Sabitzer, Forsberg; Poulsen
We say: Paris Saint-Germain 2-2 RB Leipzig
A fully-fit PSG would have been confident of dismantling a decimated Leipzig defence at the Parc des Princes, but the visitors are sure to fancy their chances against a Parisiens side plagued by injuries and suspensions. The hosts should be able to start their famed attacking trio of Di Maria, Mbappe and Neymar, but with several concerns in other areas of the pitch, we think Leipzig will do enough to come away from the French capital with a point in what should be a pulsating encounter.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 49.78%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
