Top 10 favourites for the 2026 Ballon d'Or

The 2026 World Cup has made the race for the Ballon d'Or more unpredictable than ever. Following the tournament, here are the 10 favourites for the 2026 Ballon d'Or, according to Sports Mole editorial team.

The 2026 Ballon d'Or will be presented by France Football on 26 October in London. Before the ceremony, the first stage will take place in early September with the announcement of the list of 30 nominees. Performances taken into account are expected to span from August 2025 to early August 2026.

The World Cup, won by Spain, has shaken up several certainties and produced a highly uncertain hierarchy, depending on how much weight the jury decides to give it relative to club form.

Here is the list of Ballon d'Or 2026 favourites drawn up by the Top Mercato editorial team at this moment in time, based on performances delivered so far.

Rankings and statistics updated as of 23 July 2026.

Fabian Ruiz (Spain/Paris Saint-Germain)

Trophies won are one of the main criteria taken into account for the Ballon d'Or.

And on that front, no one has done better than him this year! Champions League with Paris Saint-Germain, then the World Cup with Spain: Fabian Ruiz got his hands on both major trophies on offer in 2026.

Without quite matching his best season at Paris Saint-Germain, where injuries disrupted his campaign, and without exerting the same influence as Rodri for the Roja, it will be difficult for him to break into the top places, especially having spent part of the World Cup on the bench before overtaking Pedri in the pecking order.

However, a place in the Top 10 is clearly within reach.

Fabian Ruiz's stats at Paris Saint-Germain: 2 goals and 5 assists
His 2025-26 honours: World Cup, Champions League, Ligue 1, UEFA Super Cup, Intercontinental Cup, Trophee des Champions
His World Cup stats: 8 matches, 1 goal

Erling Haaland (Norway/Manchester City)

Once again, Erling Haaland's season with Manchester City left observers wanting more.

As is often the case, the Cyborg racked up the goals but failed to have enough of an impact when his club needed him most, particularly in the Champions League, unable to prevent elimination to Real Madrid despite scoring in the second leg.

However, the Norwegian shone at his first World Cup, reaching the quarter-finals with braces against Iraq, Senegal and, most notably, Brazil. His World Cup deserved better, but his club season is likely to leave him among the lower positions in the Top 10.

Erling Haaland's stats at Manchester City: 38 goals and 9 assists
His 2025-26 honours: League Cup, FA Cup
His World Cup stats: 7 goals in 5 matches

Rodri (Spain/Barcelona)

The best player of the 2026 World Cup, that's him! Despite being hampered by injuries for almost two years and coming off a mixed season with Manchester City, the midfielder reminded everyone exactly why he won the Ballon d'Or in 2024.

The true brain of the Roja, ever-present in build-up play, pressing and ball recovery, he was particularly outstanding in the semi-final win over France (2-0) and represents better than anyone the level reached by the collective built by Luis de la Fuente.

Rodri's stats at Manchester City: 2 goals
His 2025-26 honours: 2026 World Cup, League Cup, FA Cup
His World Cup stats: 8 matches

Michael Olise (France/Bayern Munich)

Are we being too harsh imagining the season's most thrilling player finishing only seventh for the Ballon d'Or?

On one hand, there are his extraordinary technical touches, his dribbling, his disguised passes, his status as the season's top assist provider and record-holder for assists in a single World Cup edition, ahead of Pele.

The problem is that, alongside all that, Michael Olise fell short during the moments that matter most in a season: his Champions League semi-final second leg against Paris Saint-Germain and his final matches at the World Cup were simply not at Ballon d'Or contender level.

Given his talent, though, it is safe to assume this is only a matter of time: at 24, he still has the future ahead of him.

Michael Olise's stats at Bayern Munich: 22 goals and 31 assists
His 2025-26 honours: Bundesliga, German Cup, German Super Cup
His World Cup stats: 7 assists in 8 matches

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Georgia/Paris Saint-Germain)

Absence never helps, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is likely to learn that the hard way.

Through his goals, his assists and the penalty he won in the final, "Kvara" nonetheless established himself as the main architect behind Paris Saint-Germain's fresh Champions League triumph, proving decisive in each of their last eight matches.

Based on club form alone, he might well be the Ballon d'Or favourite. Unfortunately for the Georgian, this is a World Cup year, and his absence from the most-watched event in world football is bound to have a significant impact.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's stats at Paris Saint-Germain: 19 goals and 11 assists
His 2025-26 honours: Champions League, Ligue 1, UEFA Super Cup, Intercontinental Cup, Trophee des Champions

Lionel Messi (Argentina/Inter Miami)

Probably only his most devoted fans truly believed in this comeback at 39!

With 12 goal contributions, Lionel Messi guided an Argentina side built more on fighting spirit and courage than tactical control all the way to the World Cup final. His hat-trick against Algeria and his two assists in a matter of minutes to turn the semi-final around against England will go down as defining moments.

Only an Argentina title would have made it possible to imagine Messi claiming a ninth Ballon d'Or, with the Flea penalised by playing in MLS, away from the Champions League spotlight. However, the former Barcelona man's World Cup should still earn him a strong honourable position. For the last time?

Lionel Messi's stats at Inter Miami: 13 goals and 7 assists
His 2025-26 honours: MLS
His World Cup stats: 8 goals and 4 assists in 8 matches

Kylian Mbappe (France/Real Madrid)

If the Ballon d'Or were awarded on the World Cup alone, Kylian Mbappe would be the clear favourite.

Top scorer of the tournament and, quite simply, the all-time leading scorer in World Cup history, the France captain once again showed just how much this competition inspires him.

However, there was no third star at the end of the journey, and Real Madrid's trophyless season is bound to weigh heavily against Mbappe, even though he was for a long time the standout performer, particularly during the first half of the campaign, in terms of goals scored.

Kylian Mbappe's stats at Real Madrid: 42 goals and 7 assists
His 2025-26 honours: none
His World Cup stats: 10 goals and 4 assists in 8 matches

Ousmane Dembele (France/Paris Saint-Germain)

Struggling at the midway point of the season due to recurring injuries, Ousmane Dembele produced a remarkable comeback in the spring in the Ballon d'Or favourites' rankings. Exactly as he did the year he won the award.

The reigning champion delivered at exactly the right moments, playing a decisive role in Paris Saint-Germain's victorious Champions League campaign.

His brace in the quarter-final second leg against Liverpool (2-0), his three goals in two matches against Bayern Munich in the semi-finals, and his successful penalty in the final will all count for a great deal when the final reckoning is made.

The fact remains that Dembele, in strong position at the start, lost ground at the World Cup: France did not go all the way and, despite good statistics boosted by his hat-trick against Norway, the Paris forward was the least influential of France's three attacking stars.

Even with strong arguments in his favour, Dembele may struggle to retain his title.

Ousmane Dembele's stats at Paris Saint-Germain: 20 goals and 11 assists
His 2025-26 honours: Champions League, Ligue 1, UEFA Super Cup, Intercontinental Cup, Trophee des Champions
His World Cup stats: 6 goals and 2 assists in 8 matches

Lamine Yamal (Spain/Barcelona)

Runner-up in the previous Ballon d'Or rankings, Lamine Yamal should once again finish on the podium. The question is exactly where. At just 19, the winger has a World Cup title and a LaLiga triumph to his name. There are worse honours lists!

That said, while the young Spaniard did not have a poor World Cup, he did not necessarily shine quite as much as one might have imagined, partly because he sacrificed himself for the team.

A tally of one goal and one penalty won is very little for a talent of his level! At Barcelona, his season was also good, but slightly less complete than the previous one and marked by an early Champions League quarter-final exit.

Enough to fall short of the ultimate prize? A split vote among Spanish world champions could also pose an additional threat.

Lamine Yamal's stats at Barcelona: 24 goals and 18 assists
His 2025-26 honours: World Cup, LaLiga, Spanish Super Cup
His World Cup stats: 1 goal in 8 matches

Harry Kane (England/Bayern Munich)

If asked to name a player who succeeded both in his club season and at the World Cup, the name that immediately comes to mind is probably Harry Kane.

Europe's top scorer of the season, the Englishman showed remarkable consistency, whether playing as a traditional number nine or in a deeper playmaking role.

Despite Bayern Munich's Champions League semi-final exit, he often made a real impact in the moments that mattered in the competition, scoring in both legs against Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain.

His World Cup was of almost the same standard, including two braces, one of which proved decisive in turning around the last-16 tie against DR Congo (2-1).

Even though his influence dropped off from the quarter-finals onward, Kane can point to remarkable consistency throughout. Enough to earn an almost unexpected Ballon d'Or at 33, despite lacking both a Champions League and a World Cup title on his honours list?

Harry Kane's stats at Bayern Munich: 61 goals and 7 assists
His 2025-26 honours: Bundesliga, German Cup, German Super Cup
His World Cup stats: 6 goals and 1 assist in 7 matches

Top Mercato's Ballon d'Or 2026 favourites

The World Cup swept away every certainty that seemed settled regarding the Ballon d'Or favourites at the end of the club season. The 2026 edition looks more open than ever, with half a dozen candidates all boasting serious arguments in their favour. Among the players who managed to be consistent across both competitions, the trio of Ousmane Dembele, Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane appear to stand out from the rest.

Dembele has a fresh Champions League triumph in his favour but a World Cup that felt somewhat unfinished and ultimately mixed; Yamal can boast the World Cup title, though it did not quite come in the superstar role many had imagined for him. Harry Kane has his exceptional statistics behind him but has to contend with missing out on the year's two biggest titles and a slight dip in form towards the end of the World Cup. Finally, Kylian Mbappe's candidacy cannot be entirely ruled out, despite the contrast between his club season and his World Cup.

Under these circumstances, it is difficult to identify a clear favourite, with the number one spot potentially shifting depending on how much weight each individual voter gives to the World Cup relative to the club season.