Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 68.51%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 13.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%), while for a NK Varazdin win it was 0-1 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.