Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 56.08%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Gorica had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Gorica win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for HNK Rijeka in this match.