Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.