Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 36

May 11, 2025 at 12pm UK

St. James' Park

Newcastle
2 - 0
Chelsea

Tonali (2'), Guimaraes (90')
Schar (53'), Murphy (64'), Guimaraes (84'), Krafth (89')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Fernandez (45+5'), Colwill (90+3')
Jackson (35')

Reaction

Chelsea's Nicolas Jackson in action on April 20, 2025

Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson left 'very upset' after sending off in Newcastle United defeat

Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson is reportedly left feeling 'very upset' after being sent off in Sunday's 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United.

May 12, 21:58

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca in April 2025.

Newcastle United 2-0 Chelsea: Enzo Maresca hints at disagreement over Nicolas Jackson red card

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca hints that he disagrees with the referee's decision to send off Nicolas Jackson in Sunday's 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United.

May 11, 14:51

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle United

All competitions

Last Game: Brighton 1-1 Newcastle
Sunday, May 4 at 2pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Chelsea

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Chelsea 1-0 Djurgarden
Thursday, May 8 at 8pm in Conference League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 39.22%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 37.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.34%) and 2-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle United	Draw	Chelsea
39.22% ( 0.9)	23.18% ( 0.31)	37.59% ( -1.21)

Both teams to score 64.62% (

-1.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.22% (

-1.61)

36.78% (

1.61)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.05% (

-1.77)

58.95% (

1.77)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.76% (

-0.29)

19.23% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.06% (

-0.48)

50.94% (

0.47)

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.01% (

-1.26)

19.98% (

1.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.83% (

-2.07)

52.16% (

2.07)

Score Analysis

Newcastle United 39.22%

Chelsea 37.59%

Draw 23.18%

Newcastle United	Draw	Chelsea
2-1 @ 8.41% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.43) 2-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.31) 3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 2.87% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.42% Total : 39.22%	1-1 @ 10.2% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.3) 3-3 @ 2% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.18%	1-2 @ 8.21% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 4.98% ( 0) 1-3 @ 4.41% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.21) 0-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.78% ( -0.16) 2-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.15) 0-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.18% Total : 37.59%