Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 20

Jan 1, 2024 at 8pm UK

Anfield

Liverpool
4 - 2
Newcastle

Diaz (18'), Salah (49', 86' pen.), Jones (74'), Gakpo (78')
Diaz (45'), Alexander-Arnold (45+5'), Endo (66')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Isak (54'), Botman (81')
Guimaraes (28'), Miley (45+2'), Joelinton (66'), Dubravka (84'), Longstaff (89')

Reaction

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The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Liverpool

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Burnley 0-2 Liverpool
Tuesday, December 26 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Newcastle United

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Newcastle 1-3 Nott'm Forest
Tuesday, December 26 at 12.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 66.99%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 15.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 3-1 (7.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.9%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-2 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.

Result
Liverpool	Draw	Newcastle United
66.99% ( 0.8)	17.83% ( -0.07)	15.18% ( -0.74)

Both teams to score 60% (

-1.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.8% (

-1.26)

32.2% (

1.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.2% (

-1.49)

53.79% (

1.49)

Liverpool Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.09% (

-0.16)

8.9% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.56% (

-0.38)

30.44% (

0.39)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.87% (

-1.7)

34.13% (

1.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.18% (

-1.87)

70.82% (

1.87)

Score Analysis

Liverpool 66.99%

Newcastle United 15.18%

Draw 17.83%

Liverpool	Draw	Newcastle United
2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.47) 3-1 @ 7.7% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.35% ( 0.44) 3-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.33) 4-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 4.14% ( -0.2) 4-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.14) 5-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.07) 5-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.08) 6-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.22% Total : 66.99%	1-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 3.04% ( 0.2) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.27% Total : 17.83%	1-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.55% Total : 15.18%