Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Everton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Everton | Draw | Southampton |
| 37.36% | 27.23% | 35.41% |
| Both teams to score 50.15% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.68% | 55.32% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.47% | 76.53% |
| Everton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.41% | 28.59% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.62% | 64.38% |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.22% | 29.78% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.15% | 65.85% |
| Score Analysis |
| Everton | Draw | Southampton |
| 1-0 @ 10.65% 2-1 @ 8.09% 2-0 @ 6.67% 3-1 @ 3.38% 3-0 @ 2.79% 3-2 @ 2.04% 4-1 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.68% Total : 37.35% | 1-1 @ 12.91% 0-0 @ 8.51% 2-2 @ 4.9% Other @ 0.91% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 10.31% 1-2 @ 7.82% 0-2 @ 6.25% 1-3 @ 3.16% 0-3 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 1.98% 1-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.41% Total : 35.4% |