Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Under-21s win with a probability of 57.83%. A win for Stoke City Under-21s had a probability of 23.42% and a draw had a probability of 18.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.98%) and 2-3 (5.46%). The likeliest Stoke City Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal Under-21s would win this match.