Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Under-21s win with a probability of 65.15%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 18.49% and a draw had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.37%) and 2-3 (5.69%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (4.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea Under-21s would win this match.