Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Under-21s win with a probability of 56.94%. A win for Southampton Under-21s had a probability of 24.1% and a draw had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.89%) and 3-2 (5.45%). The likeliest Southampton Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal Under-21s would win this match.