Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 38.75%. A win for Katowice had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.57%) and 0-2 (5.67%). The likeliest Katowice win was 2-1 (8.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.