Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 47.9%. A win for Pogon Szczecin had a probability of 28.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Pogon Szczecin win was 1-2 (7.5%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.