Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 38.83%. A win for Arka Gdynia had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Arka Gdynia win was 1-0 (8.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.