Championship strugglers Peterborough United host Preston North End at the Weston Homes Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Posh are currently 22nd in the table and two points adrift of safety, while the Lilywhites are 12th and only four points behind the playoffs.
Match preview
© Reuters
Darren Ferguson described Peterborough's 4-0 defeat away at Cardiff City on Wednesday evening as "a humiliation and a complete embarrassment" as he saw his side slip to their 18th league defeat of the campaign.
The Posh have taken just one point from their last six games, while they have only won one of their last 14 league fixtures.
Nonetheless, they remain just two points from safety with a game in hand over 21st-placed Reading, who they face in a huge six-pointer next week.
Sixteen of Peterborough's 20 points have come at the West Homes Stadium this season, meaning that they have picked up a higher percentage of points on home turf (80%) than any side in the Championship.
Ferguson's side have the worst defence in the division, conceding 59 goals and failing to keep a clean sheet since the end of November.
© Reuters
Preston's 0-0 stalemate against Huddersfield Town on Wednesday was their 12th draw of the campaign – no side in the Championship have seen more games end level this season.
It did extend their unbeaten run to five games though, and they are quickly becoming a very stubborn side under Ryan Lowe.
Indeed, since the former Plymouth Argyle boss was appointed in December, the Lilywhites have lost just one of 10 league matches.
The Lancashire outfit have won three of their last five away games and have kept three successive clean sheets on the road.
Preston have also won all of their last four league meetings with Peterborough. Patrick Bauer's 14th-minute header gave them a 1-0 victory in this season's reverse fixture at Deepdale in August.
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
- D
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Peterborough's horror show at Cardiff is likely to see Ferguson make multiple changes, with Jonson Clarke-Harris and Sammie Szmodics among those who could come in.
Mark Beevers was named in the original starting lineup in South Wales before being forced to pull out because of a hamstring injury, but may be restored to provide some leadership in the backline.
There could also be a return for Nathan Thompson, who missed the midweek game due to a muscle complaint.
A calf injury forced Preston left wing-back Greg Cunningham off against Huddersfield and he is likely to miss this weekend's game. Josh Earl should replace him.
Lowe revealed after the midweek game that Emil Riis Jakobsen has been struggling with a knock and therefore started on the bench, but the Lilywhites boss may decide to restore his top scorer to the starting lineup after the goalless draw.
Tom Barkhuizen, Josh Murphy and Izzy Brown are all still sidelined for the visitors.
Peterborough United possible starting lineup:
Benda; Kent, Edwards, Beevers; Thompson, Fuchs, Norburn, Mumba; Szmodics; Clarke-Harris, Morton
Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Hughes, Bauer, van den Berg; Potts, Johnson, McCann, Browne, Earl; Riis, Archer
We say: Peterborough United 0-1 Preston North End
If Peterborough are going to get a win to move them out of the relegation zone then it will probably come on home turf, but we cannot see it coming against an improving Preston side. Will Ferguson's post-match rollicking in midweek spur the Posh into life or see them go into their shell? We think the latter.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Preston North End win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Peterborough United had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Preston North End win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Peterborough United win was 1-0 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Preston North End in this match.
