Having sunk to the bottom of Serie A in midweek, Parma welcome local rivals Sassuolo to Stadio Ennio Tardini on Sunday in abject form.
An Emilian derby - which will be put on pause for at least one season, as the hosts head for the second tier next term - sees Roberto De Zerbi's visitors still chasing a top-seven finish, which would secure their return to European football.
Match preview
© Reuters
A Parma side already preparing for life in Serie B following a terrible second season back in the top flight face further ignominy in the coming week, if they cannot finish their miserable campaign with a flourish.
Ahead of their final two games - first against Sassuolo, then away to Sampdoria on the final weekend - the Crociati sit bottom of the pile, after their midweek loss against Lazio was bettered by a rare Crotone victory; now leaving them a point behind the defensively disastrous Calabrian outfit.
Though Parma were unfortunate to concede the only goal with the last kick of the game at Stadio Olimpico - having previously hit the woodwork twice themselves - their most recent setback only added to a meek relinquishing of their status in Italy's elite.
The side overseen by Roberto D'Aversa have now suffered seven straight defeats and are condemned to end the season in the bottom two, as they are fully 11 points adrift of 18th-placed Benevento, so only the pride of averting a rock-bottom finish can motivate them now.
Certainly, the Gialloblu will also want to avoid losing to their local rivals on Sunday - particularly after the reverse fixture was another one of several occasions that Parma have let a lead slip late on; when they conceded in stoppage time to draw 1-1 at the Mapei Stadium.
© Reuters
By contrast with their near neighbours, Sassuolo had gained the most points in the previous six Serie A matchdays ahead of the visit of Juventus in midweek - returning to their free-flowing best and picking up 16 points from a possible 18 in the process.
However, a 43-year-old goalkeeper stood between the Neroverdi and the lead last Wednesday, after Gianluigi Buffon saved top scorer Domenico Berardi's penalty kick. Despite still threatening on several occasions, Sassuolo ultimately went on to lose 3-1 to the outgoing champions, but results elsewhere have kept them in with a shout of Europe.
Roberto De Zerbi's men remain within striking distance of an ailing Roma side, who lost to title-winners Inter, and sit just two points above them in the standings.
With a place in the new UEFA Conference League therefore still a distinct possibility, just a second-ever continental qualification for the traditionally lower-ranked Emilian outfit - who have outstripped both Parma and Bologna in recent years - would prove a fitting reward for their characteristically enterprising campaign.
Even though Berardi (currently on 16 goals) missed the opportunity to build on a run of three consecutive goalscoring games last time out, his new strike partner - diminutive primavera product Giacomo Raspadori - netted his fifth in the last eight matches.
With that pair set to be reunited with regular centre-forward Francesco Caputo in the near future, even if De Zerbi does depart as rumoured this summer, next year could be just as bright for the top dogs of Emilia-Romagna.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Parma's treatment room seems to have been jam-packed throughout 2021, as numerous absentees - including Wylan Cyprien, Gaston Brugman, Yann Karamoh, Dennis Man and Roberto Inglese - were joined by Gervinho last week, after the Ivorian forward picked up a thigh strain before the trip to Rome.
Juraj Kucka should be back in the squad, though, after missing out in midweek, while Valentin Mihaila (thigh) and Giuseppe Pezzella (shoulder) are other possible returnees on Sunday.
Up front, veteran striker Graziano Pelle is set to make way for Andreas Cornelius, while Jasmin Kurtic could lose his starting place to accomodate Kucka.
The visitors, meanwhile, have far fewer concerns ahead of the game, as centre-forward Francesco Caputo has recently returned, following a long injury layoff. In his absence, though, local lad Giacomo Raspadori has consistently shone and is expected to hold off the claims of Gregoire Defrel to start up front for Sassuolo.
Experienced midfielder Francesco Magnanelli is apparently still not ready to return from the start, with Maxime Lopez and Manuel Locatelli instead the likeliest central pairing, while Filip Djuricic has proved his fitness and could feature from the bench.
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Busi, Osorio, Dierckx, Gagliolo; Grassi, Hernani, Sohm; Kucka, Cornelius, Brunetta
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Muldur, Chiriches, Ferrari, Rogerio; Locatelli, Lopez; Berardi, Traore, Boga; Raspadori
We say: Parma 1-2 Sassuolo
For all their miserable results - most notably during the last two months - Parma have often pushed opponents hard, before committing another calamitous mistake or losing discipline at the back.
As they prepare for life in Serie B, then, they can test Sassuolo's sometimes vulnerable rearguard on Sunday, but will ultimately be unable to resist their visitors' in-form strikeforce for a full 90 minutes.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 56.69%. A win for Parma had a probability of 21.84% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.39%) and 0-1 (8.36%). The likeliest Parma win was 2-1 (5.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.
