Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dungannon Swifts win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 36.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dungannon Swifts win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Carrick Rangers win was 1-2 (8.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.