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Newcastle logo
Premier League | Gameweek 23
Feb 6, 2021 at 3pm UK
St James' Park
Southampton logo

Newcastle
3 - 2
Southampton

Willock (16'), Almiron (26', 45+4')
Hendrick (11'), Krafth (45+3')
Hendrick (50')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Minamino (30'), Ward-Prowse (48')
Bednarek (73')

Preview: Newcastle United vs. Southampton - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Southampton will look to put their 9-0 humiliation at the hands of Manchester United swiftly behind them when they make the long trip up to St James' Park to face Newcastle United on Saturday.

For the second time in as many seasons, the Saints found themselves on the wrong end of the Premier League's biggest-ever scoreline, but this weekend they take on a Newcastle side in even worse form.


Match preview

Southampton players look dejected during their 9-0 defeat to Manchester United in February 2021© Reuters

What had been shaping up to be a promising season for Southampton is quickly beginning to turn sour, with a sharp downturn in form seeing the Saints drop to 12th place in the Premier League.

It is difficult to imagine what else could have gone wrong for them on Tuesday night as a merciless Manchester United put Ralph Hasenhuttl's side to the sword after 19-year-old debutant Alexandre Jankewitz was shown a straight red card after less than two minutes for a challenge which even his own manager admitted was "stupid".

The Saints went on to finish the game having conceded as many goals as they had men on the field courtesy of Jan Bednarek's more controversial dismissal, while a couple of very debatable VAR calls went against Southampton to add to their misery.

The nature of the collapse seemed to knock the stuffing out of Hasenhuttl, who has now found himself on the end of the biggest defeat in Premier League history on two of the three occasions that scoreline has happened, having also lost 9-0 at home to Leicester City last season.

Tuesday's ignominy was Southampton's biggest ever away defeat and made it four league losses in a row for the first time in Hasenhuttl's managerial career. Southampton as a team are now in danger of losing five consecutive league games for the first time since September 1998.

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl pictured on January 23, 2021© Reuters

There are some glimmers of hope if Southampton look hard enough, though; a 9-0 defeat will always raise questions over a team's character, but that is a test the Saints have already overcome with flying colours once before, following the Leicester debacle last season.

Southampton were also in a much worse position - both in terms of the league table and as a club - when they were obliterated by Leicester on that occasion, so they will be building their recovery on much sturdier foundations this time around.

It did take them a few more weeks after the Leicester defeat to really turn things around, though, and they will be hoping that is not the case against a Newcastle side also in poor form.

While Southampton have only won one of their last nine league games, Newcastle have only won one of their last 13 across all competitions and are without a home win since December 12, losing each of their last three.

The most recent of those saw them surrender an early lead to lose against Crystal Palace on Tuesday night, undoing much of the good work they had achieved in beating Everton at Goodison Park last weekend.

Newcastle United manager Steve Bruce pictured on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Manager Steve Bruce was still content with his side's performance despite the defeat to Palace and insists that the Magpies are now back on the right track.

However, they have already lost six Premier League games in 2021 - at least two more than any other club - while Brighton & Hove Albion's improving form has now seen them slip down to 16th in the table.

A comfortable eight-point cushion still separates them from the relegation zone and Bruce will be confident of picking up enough points over the rest of the campaign to keep the bottom three at arm's length, but if the current form continues then his own personal survival hopes in the job may evaporate before Newcastle's survival hopes as a team do.

There are reasons to be confident this weekend, though, not least given their record against Southampton. The Magpies have won 11 and lost just one of their last 15 home top-flight meetings with Southampton, including victories in each of the last three.

Indeed, another victory on Saturday would mean that Southampton join Aston Villa and Everton as the teams against whom Newcastle have won the most home Premier League games, although the Saints did win the reverse fixture in November and could do the double over the Magpies for only the third time in the Premier League era.

Newcastle United Premier League form: LLLLWL

Southampton Premier League form: DWLLLL
Southampton form (all competitions): LWWLLL



Team News

Alexandre Jankewitz is sent off for Southampton against Manchester United on February 2, 2021© Reuters

Southampton's list of absentees grows by the week at the moment, with Jankewitz's red card on Tuesday night meaning that the Saints could be without up to 10 first-team players for this game.

Jankewitz will now miss the next three games, but there has been better news regarding Bednarek, whose one-game ban has been wiped out after Southampton launched a successful appeal against his red card.

Nonetheless, Hasenhuttl could still be left short at the back with doubts remaining over Jannik Vestergaard, Mohammed Salisu and Kyle Walker-Peters.

The trio are all expected to return soon and could even be rushed back to help deal with the growing injury crisis, although Hasenhuttl will not want to risk exacerbating any existing problems.

Oriol Romeu and Ibrahima Diallo joined the injury list ahead of the midweek defeat at Old Trafford and are expected to miss out on Saturday too, while Nathan Tella, Theo Walcott, Michael Obafemi and William Smallbone are also absent.

Ordinarily, Hasenhuttl may look to ring the changes after such a humiliating defeat, though his options to do so are severely limited with Nathan Redmond the only outfield player on the bench at Old Trafford who had previously started a top-flight game.

Deadline day signing Takumi Minamino, who joined on loan from Liverpool, could offer a timely reinforcement and be thrown straight into the starting XI as a result.

Newcastle have had their own injury and illness issues this season, but those have largely cleared up now with centre-back duo Jamaal Lascelles and Federico Fernandez their only absentees for this match.

Allan Saint-Maximin will be pushing for a start alongside Callum Wilson, who has now had a hand in 15 goals from his 20 Premier League appearances for the Magpies.

New arrival Joe Willock will also be knocking on the door to start, having sealed his loan switch from Arsenal too late to feature against Palace.

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Darlow; Manquillo, Clark, Schar, Lewis; Willock, Shelvey, Hayden; Almiron; Wilson, Saint-Maximin

Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Ramsay, Bednarek, Stephens, Bertrand; Djenepo, Ward-Prowse, Minamino, Armstrong; Redmond, Ings


SM words green background

We say: Newcastle United 1-1 Southampton

Recent results make this an incredibly difficult match to call between two woefully out-of-form sides. Hasenhuttl will be demanding a reaction to such an embarrassing defeat last time out, but that is easier said than done with a team so depleted by injuries and suspensions.

Newcastle, for their part, have looked more capable of getting results in recent weeks despite still being towards the bottom of the form table, but it remains very hard to back them. We are going for a draw at St James'.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:



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Written by
Barney Corkhill

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 37.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Newcastle vs Southampton

Newcastle United
34.5%
Draw
33.6%
Southampton
31.9%
113
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12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle155551921-220
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14West Ham UnitedWest Ham155372028-818
15Everton143561421-714
16Leicester CityLeicester153572130-914
17Crystal Palace152761420-613
18Ipswich TownIpswich151681427-139
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1523102338-159
20Southampton1512121131-205


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