Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 47.78%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 26.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.