Nations League Gameweek 5
Nov 14, 2026 7.45pm
Windsor Park

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Georgia 0 - 1 N. Ireland

Ukraine

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Hungary 0 - 1 Ukraine

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 36.1%. A win for Ukraine has a probability of 33.9% and a draw has a probability of 30.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (7.43%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Ukraine win is 0-1 (11.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.81%).

Result

Northern Ireland 36.1% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 30.06%
Ukraine 33.9%

Both Teams to Score: 

43.76% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 64.66% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 35.34% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 37.71% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 62.29% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 17.79%
Under 3.5 82.21%
Over 4.5 8.57%
Under 4.5 91.43%

First Half Winner

Northern Ireland 26.92%
Draw 47.96%
Ukraine 25.12%

Team To Score First

Northern Ireland 46.19%
No Goal 11.41%
Ukraine 42.4%

Corners

Over 8 40.81%
Equal 8 11.89%
Under 8 47.3%
Over 9 30.23%
Equal 9 10.58%
Under 9 59.19%
Over 10.5 21.54%
Under 10.5 78.46%

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 1.5 30% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 70% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 10.19% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 89.81% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 2.81%
Under 3.5 97.19%

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5 64.12%
Under 0.5 35.88%
Over 1.5 28.39% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 71.61% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 9.29% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 90.71% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 2.57%
Under 3.5 97.43%

Score analysis

Northern Ireland 36.1%
Draw 30.06%
Ukraine 33.91%
Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 12.29% ▲ (+0.04)
2-1 @ 7.43%
2-0 @ 6.88% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 2.78%
3-0 @ 2.66% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 1.35%
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 36.1%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.81% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 11.41%
2-2 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 30.06%
Ukraine
0-1 @ 11.71% ▲ (+0.02)
1-2 @ 7.33% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 6.27% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.5% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.28%
2-3 @ 1.35%
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 33.91%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 2, 2026 7.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Štadión Antona Malatinského
  • Mykola Matvienko 57' yellowcard
  • Matviy Ponomarenko 88' yellowcard
  • Danylo Sikan 88' yellowcard
  • goal Ciaron Brown 9'
  • goal Isaac Price 22'
  • goal Ciaron Brown 61'
  • yellowcard Brodie Spencer 64'
International Friendlies
Jun 3, 2021 7.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Oleksandr Zubkov 10' goal
  • Artem Besedin 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paddy McNair 90'+3'
International Friendlies
Jun 1, 2020 11.00pm
European Championship
Jun 16, 2016 5.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Stade de Lyon
  • Yevhen Seleznyov 40' yellowcard
  • Serhiy Sydorchuk 67' yellowcard
  • goal Gareth McAuley 49'
  • yellowcard Jamie Ward 63'
  • yellowcard Stuart Dallas 87'
  • yellowcard Jonny Evans 95'
  • goal Niall McGinn 96'