Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 40.82%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 1-0 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.