UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Poljud

Croatia
2 - 0
France

(2-2 on aggregate)

Budimir (26'), Perisic (45+1')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Tchouameni (74'), Upamecano (75')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions

Last Game: Croatia 1-1 Portugal
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	6	8	14
2	Croatia	6	0	8
3	Scotland	6	-1	7
4	Poland	6	-7	4

France

All competitions

Last Game: Italy 1-3 France
Sunday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	6	13
2	Italy	6	5	13
3	Belgium	6	-3	4
4	Israel	6	-8	4

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for France had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest France win was 0-1 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.

Result
Croatia	Draw	France
41.47% ( -0.05)	26.45% ( 0.04)	32.08% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 51.93% (

-0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.25% (

-0.17)

52.74% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.62% (

-0.14)

74.38% (

0.13)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.89% (

-0.1)

25.11% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.19% (

-0.14)

59.81% (

0.14)

France Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.34% (

-0.08)

30.66% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.09% (

-0.09)

66.9% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Croatia 41.46%

France 32.08%

Draw 26.44%

Croatia	Draw	France
1-0 @ 10.63% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.35% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 41.46%	1-1 @ 12.57% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.7% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.44%	0-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.44% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.09% Total : 32.08%