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National League North | Gameweek 31
Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
Haig Avenue
Alfreton Town

Southport
2 - 3
Alfreton

Carver (24', 45+7')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Waldock (12'), Day (88'), McDonagh (90')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Southport and Alfreton Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Southport 2-0 Darlington
Tuesday, January 9 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: P'boro Sports 1-1 Alfreton
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Southport had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Southport win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.

Result
SouthportDrawAlfreton Town
27.9% (0.16 0.16) 27.29% (-0.014999999999997 -0.01) 44.81% (-0.14400000000001 -0.14)
Both teams to score 47.41% (0.145 0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.42% (0.138 0.14)57.58% (-0.13699999999999 -0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.64% (0.11 0.11)78.36% (-0.10899999999999 -0.11)
Southport Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.72% (0.204 0.2)36.28% (-0.203 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.93% (0.206 0.21)73.07% (-0.205 -0.2)
Alfreton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.4% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)25.6% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.52% (-0.011999999999993 -0.01)60.48% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Southport 27.9%
    Alfreton Town 44.8%
    Draw 27.29%
SouthportDrawAlfreton Town
1-0 @ 9.42% (0.0029999999999983 0)
2-1 @ 6.5% (0.036 0.04)
2-0 @ 4.77% (0.028 0.03)
3-1 @ 2.2% (0.024 0.02)
3-0 @ 1.61% (0.019 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.5% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 27.9%
1-1 @ 12.83%
0-0 @ 9.29% (-0.048 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.43% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 27.29%
0-1 @ 12.65% (-0.07 -0.07)
1-2 @ 8.74% (-0.0029999999999983 -0)
0-2 @ 8.62% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.97% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 3.92% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.01% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.35% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.34% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 44.8%

Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Alfreton
3-1
Southport
Salmon (1', 17'), Thewlis (74')
Quansah (34')
Mar 21, 2023 7.45pm
Aug 20, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 4
Alfreton
4-0
Southport
Hobson (32'), Southwell (40', 67'), Preston (45+1')
Mar 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 34
Alfreton
2-2
Southport
Rhead (50'), Southwell (64')
Vassallo (24'), Munro (29')
Nov 23, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Southport
2-0
Alfreton
Woods (23', 55')
rhs 2.0
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