Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 65.18%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Southport had a probability of 14.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.92%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.51%), while for a Southport win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curzon Ashton would win this match.